United Kingdom Referendum 2016

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zoL said:
I hope all of England and Wales are turned into third world shitholes.  I hope we see tons of English and Welsh lining up in the streets for water and bread.  I hope Scotland gets another vote.  I hope Ireland lures in all the UK financial institutions.

 :hehe:

The EU is a failing political project which has no regard for the wishes of its member states. If it wasn't obvious before, it's quite clear to see when you see how the MEPs, Tusk, Schulz and Juncker are bitterly behaving after the Leave vote. The short term economic problems after a Leave vote were always known, there were simply bigger issues for people.
 
RIP the Boris dream.

Looks like Margaret Thatcher 2.0 is about to become our PM.
 
b3fd6de236.jpg
 
kneepel said:
lol first johnson now farage

rip UK



Johnson not running had nothing to do with Brexit, Farage has no real reason to stick around now, he's not exactly going to become a government adviser now is he? 
 
magnify said:
kneepel said:
lol first johnson now farage

rip UK



Johnson not running had nothing to do with Brexit, Farage has no real reason to stick around now, he's not exactly going to become a government adviser now is he? 

Granted it was Gove fucking over Johnson which caused his resignation (I still doubt Johnson wanted the leave vote to win), but Farage is nothing more than a rat jumping ship.

@Fiesta, too lazy to multiquote so:

  • The UK has no trade treaties or agreements with other nations (everything is established with the UN), those take years and years of ratification and review to be put into power. Expect the price of foreign goods (mostly everything) to increase quite a bit when the UK exits. Most EU members will also cut free trade with Britain, which is bad, because half of Britain's exports end up in the EU.
  • Many startups and small businesses are funded by the EU.
  • Scotland will most definitely leave, cutting off a sizable portion of the already damaged UK economy. Scotland contains the largest oil reserve in the EU among other natural resources.
  • Predicted 3.8-7.5% decrease in GDP by 2030
  • No free movement, which may not bother some, but good bye to paperless travel.
  • The referendum was ran on misinformation and failure to provide any real idea of benefits/consequences by both sides.
  • etc

Almost everything I listed above may or may not happen, why?

Because Brexit has introduced an unprecedented era of economic uncertainty, and you can thank (mostly) the older generation for fucking it up for everyone else. I hope being able to control your own borders was worth it, because now you face potentially one of the greatest constitutional and economic crisis' in UK history, that may even break up the entirety of the UK when/if its members start to secede. 

What's even funnier, is the fact that the UK leaving the EU is also uncertain.

...and as I type this, the pound continues to fall against the dollar

why do bullet points not work
 
kneepel said:
magnify said:
kneepel said:
lol first johnson now farage

rip UK



Johnson not running had nothing to do with Brexit, Farage has no real reason to stick around now, he's not exactly going to become a government adviser now is he? 

Granted it was Gove fucking over Johnson which caused his resignation (I still doubt Johnson wanted the leave vote to win), but Farage is nothing more than a rat jumping ship.

@Fiesta, too lazy to multiquote so:


  • The UK has no trade treaties or agreements with other nations (everything is established with the UN), those take years and years of ratification and review to be put into power. Expect the price of foreign goods (mostly everything) to increase quite a bit when the UK exits. Most EU members will also cut free trade with Britain, which is bad, because half of Britain's exports end up in the EU.
  • Many startups and small businesses are funded by the EU.
  • Scotland will most definitely leave, cutting off a sizable portion of the already damaged UK economy. Scotland contains the largest oil reserve in the EU among other natural resources.
  • Predicted 3.8-7.5% decrease in GDP by 2030
  • No free movement, which may not bother some, but good bye to paperless travel.
  • The referendum was ran on misinformation and failure to provide any real idea of benefits/consequences by both sides.
  • etc

Almost everything I listed above may or may not happen, why?

Because Brexit has introduced an unprecedented era of economic uncertainty, and you can thank (mostly) the older generation for fucking it up for everyone else. I hope being able to control your own borders was worth it, because now you face potentially one of the greatest constitutional and economic crisis' in UK history, that may even break up the entirety of the UK when its members start to secede. 

What's even funnier, is the fact that the UK leaving the EU is also uncertain.

...and as I type this, the pound continues to fall against the dollar

why do bullet points not work

There's no reason to believe Johnson didn't actually want Brexit, it's just pure speculation. Did he expect to win? No, but that's completely different. Johnson was absolutely going to run for PM, but Gove announced his intention to run for leadership one hour before, so Boris didn't have a sufficient number of MPs to run for PM and decided to pull out rather than lose, nothing to do with Brexit in the slightest.

Farage has said he will happily take part in any formal negotiations with the EU, not sure what you think he's bailing on. He campaigned for Brexit for 23 years, UKIP has no power in government whatsoever in order to bring about Brexit, him being leader of UKIP makes no difference whatsoever. All it does is allow UKIP to become slightly more liberal with a more suitable leader and shed the image they currently have. Why? In order to steal most of the Labour voters in the north of England that voted Leave (when Labour advocated the Remain vote, the main reason Corbyn is in tons of shit right now). Again, nothing to do with jumping ship.

EU members should be heistant to cut free trade with us. We are their closest trading partner and we currently have a trading deficit with them. They need us just as much, if not more, than they need us. Germany for example, if they imposed tariffs on trade, can you imagine the damage it would do to their car industry given how much they export to us? Hence there is likely to be a more complicated free trade deal that, you're right, will take some time. However in the long run this was absolutely the right thing to do.

Yes, the EU funds some small businesses, but many small business owners supported Leave due to the constant interference from the EU via useless rules and regulations that favour some businesses and not others.

The two favourites to become PM have already ruled out the possibility of a second referendum in the near future. There was recently a referendum in 2014 in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. This EU referendum was a UK-wide referendum asking the question whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the EU, not the individual countries. This is the point of view held by the vast majority of Westminster. Sturgeon can whine all she wants, it isn't happening for a while (probably not before the next general election in 2020).

Of course there is going to be negative predictions made right now because of the economic uncertainty. No one knows what is going to happen 10 years from now, the predictions are absolutely and completely useless and not worth commenting on. We don't even have a formal idea of what our trade relationships will be. We will know more in a couple of years.

No freedom of movement was by far, the main reason people voted Leave, it is quite clearly a positive for the majority of the electorate here and a main focus of reform in coming years.

Yes.


Would you like an age restriction imposed for future referendums? The older population have just as much right to vote as anyone else. I wish students here would stop banging on about that bullshit and accept the result. Perhaps it should occur to them that some of the older population have vast more experience and knowledge and believe it is best for the country in the long-term to leave the EU, regardless of if they're alive to benefit or not (remember a lot of them have descendants...). Yes it's a constitutional fuckfest at the moment. Yes it was worth it.

We're leaving the EU. There isn't any doubt about that. The only doubt is when.
 
magnify said:
There's no reason to believe Johnson didn't actually want Brexit, it's just pure speculation. Did he expect to win? No, but that's completely different. Johnson was absolutely going to run for PM, but Gove announced his intention to run for leadership one hour before, so Boris didn't have a sufficient number of MPs to run for PM and decided to pull out rather than lose, nothing to do with Brexit in the slightest.

I never stated that Johnson's resignation from the race was related to Brexit, it's just that he was the face of the leave voters.

Farage has said he will happily take part in any formal negotiations with the EU, not sure what you think he's bailing on. 

Everything indicates that he is ending his career as a politician, a direct quote from him is below:

"During this referendum campaign I said I want my country back. Now I want my life back,"

EU members should be heistant to cut free trade with us. We are their closest trading partner and we currently have a trading deficit with them. They need us just as much, if not more, than they need us. Germany for example, if they imposed tariffs on trade, can you imagine the damage it would do to their car industry given how much they export to us? Hence there is likely to be a more complicated free trade deal that, you're right, will take some time. However in the long run this was absolutely the right thing to do.

Specifically, the US and France are Germany's largest trade partners (by a fairly wide margin). The EU imposes tariffs for every country outside of their trade union, and I believe the UK could join them while not being a member of the EU, but that's probably not going to happen. Negotiations will decide how trade between EU members and the UK continue, but that doesn't affect relations between the UK and the other 162 something WTO members.


Yes, the EU funds some small businesses, but many small business owners supported Leave due to the constant interference from the EU via useless rules and regulations that favour some businesses and not others.

Funny enough, the most business heavy region in Britain (London) voted to remain.

Thankfully Brexit has slashed business confidence to an all-time low though, you know, because a quarter of FSB members export to the EU.


The two favourites to become PM have already ruled out the possibility of a second referendum in the near future. There was recently a referendum in 2014 in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. This EU referendum was a UK-wide referendum asking the question whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the EU, not the individual countries. This is the point of view held by the vast majority of Westminster. 

I understand it was the UK as a whole, but this is where the conflict of interest comes into play. You have Northern Ireland and Scotland with overwhelming Remain percentages, while Britain voted as a whole to Leave. There was just an election by the way which resulted in the SNP winning, coupled with an overwhelming majority of the Scottish public voting to remain, a referendum may not be far off at all.


Of course there is going to be negative predictions made right now because of the economic uncertainty. No one knows what is going to happen 10 years from now, the predictions are absolutely and completely useless and not worth commenting on. We don't even have a formal idea of what our trade relationships will be. We will know more in a couple of years.

Years of economic uncertainty is not healthy, it's the reason why the Pound is continuing to drop against the Dollar and why there is somewhat of a "brain-drain" happening right now.

No freedom of movement was by far, the main reason people voted Leave, it is quite clearly a positive for the majority of the electorate here and a main focus of reform in coming years.

Still very bad for the millions who live as UK residents in other countries, or frequently travel back and forth. Whether or not if it's a negative consequence or not is left up to opinion I suppose.


Would you like an age restriction imposed for future referendums? The older population have just as much right to vote as anyone else. I wish students here would stop banging on about that bullshit and accept the result. Perhaps it should occur to them that some of the older population have vast more experience and knowledge and believe it is best for the country in the long-term to leave the EU, regardless of if they're alive to benefit or not (remember a lot of them have descendants...). Yes it's a constitutional fuckfest at the moment. Yes it was worth it.

63% of people aged 18-44 voted to leave, and interestingly enough, the higher of an education someone received, the more likely they were to vote remain.

Age =/= wisdom, after living in a retirement community all my life, I can safely say this. 

I wasn't being truly serious when I said "fuck all seniors!", though it is pretty interesting to see the ridiculous age gap between leave and remain voters.





We're leaving the EU. There isn't any doubt about that. The only doubt is when.

Funny enough, there still is somewhat of a chance the UK could not leave. Holyrood could withhold consent to leave the EU, that doesn't mean they'll 'block' it, but they could sure make it a lot harder although this is very unlikely to happen.

The Referendum was not legally binding, so it's not required for Cameron to invoke Article 50 and begin the process, though he would probably be stoned to death if he did that.



after you respond though i'm going to stop, because political arguments go nowhere.

ayy lmao here's to being canadian.
 
kneepel said:
I never stated that Johnson's resignation from the race was related to Brexit, it's just that he was the face of the leave voters.

You made it seem like he was abandoning leadership because he knew he fucked up by advocating Leave or something, I was pointing out that couldn't be further from the truth.

kneepel said:
Everything indicates that he is ending his career as a politician, a direct quote from him is below:
"During this referendum campaign I said I want my country back. Now I want my life back,"

He will continue on as an MEP for the next two years. Like I said, he has already said multiple times he would welcome any inclusion in the EU negotiation talks, he isn't walking away from anything. The UKIP leadership change is a purely political one to gain voters from the Labour party for any upcoming general election.

kneepel said:
Specifically, the US and France are Germany's largest trade partners (by a fairly wide margin). The EU imposes tariffs for every country outside of their trade union, and I believe the UK could join them while not being a member of the EU, but that's probably not going to happen. Negotiations will decide how trade between EU members and the UK continue, but that doesn't affect relations between the UK and the other 162 something WTO members.

It doesn't matter who Germany's largest trade partners are. They export a lot to us also. You don't just turn down a better trade deal for your country because you have other large trade deals. If it's in their national interest to not impose tariffs on some trade sectors then they simply won't want to do it. As I said, the UK is one of the EU's closest trading partners. It sounds stupid to even say it because it should be so blindingly obvious but... we aren't going to be in the same situation as Canada (which everyone loves to cite for some reason). Of course it will take a few years, but the EU has trade deals with non-EU countries that include tariff-free trade in some sectors of the manufacturing. The UK could have a very similar deal for sectors that are heavily mutually dependent on the EU (for example, car industry, like I said earlier).

The Remain campaign simply wanted to put fear into the electorate by repeatedly citing the amount of time it takes the EU to make its trade deals with nations such as US and Canada which have taken very long. But, on both sides of the argument, it's widely recognised that the EU has been awful in making trade deals around the world, which is due to the fact it's negotiating on behalf of the 28 member states that don't have the ability to make their own trade deal. It's not a bad thing that we now have that ability to decide what's in the best interest of our own damn country.

The only negative is the few years of uncertainty ahead. But people knew that well ahead of voting, they just didn't care. This leave vote was about more than just the economy so I wish people outside the UK would stop reading the news and then spouting "rip UK the pound has fallen LOL their economy is RUINED XD". To people inside the UK, the economy was very low down on their priority list. How do I know that? The Remain campaign didn't shut the fuck up for over a year straight on how the economy would be shattered if we left. George Osborne was so desperate that he asked many EU finance ministers to publicly say that they would shun the UK if it left the UK (which they have come out after Brexit and said that some of them said that because Osborne asked them to), calling in favours from across the globe for people to shout about how bad it would be for our economy. He announced an emergency budget that he would implement if we leave the EU. It was instantly dubbed the 'punishment budget'. It was a £30 billion package of tax rises and spending cuts. Immediately, 65 MPs of his own party said they would force him to resign if he ever implemented such a budget, because it was quite clearly a scare tactic. It even scuppered his own chances to become next PM which everyone expected a few years ago. The point is, we were told about the woes to the economy for an eternity, but guess what, they still lost the vote. So people should realise leaving the EU is not about the economy, so repeatedly going on about it is just missing the point. We will be worse off economically? Probably. Will it be as bad as Remainers say? No. Can we rebounce in the long-term given the fact we can now make our own decisions? Certainly. It was a vote for the long-term.

kneepel said:
Funny enough, the most business heavy region in Britain (London) voted to remain.

Thankfully Brexit has slashed business confidence to an all-time low though, you know, because a quarter of FSB members export to the EU.

Okay let's get one thing straight here. London has a population of over 9 million. It is the most multi-cultural and diverse city in the world. It has a very, very large number of immigrants from around the world. I've lived here all my life. Is it really a shock to you that a city such as that voted to Remain, given how inclusive to immigrants it is? Let's not spread misinformation that London's large Remain vote was because of it being a "business heavy" region. The same voting trends were seen in other large cities such as Manchester and Bristol, also cities with a large immigrant population. (London was actually the only region in the entirety of England to vote to remain)

kneepel said:
I understand it was the UK as a whole, but this is where the conflict of interest comes into play. You have Northern Ireland and Scotland with overwhelming Remain percentages, while Britain voted as a whole to Leave. There was just an election by the way which resulted in the SNP winning, coupled with an overwhelming majority of the Scottish public voting to remain, a referendum may not be far off at all.

The candidates to become the next PM have all already come out and said they would not offer Scotland a second referendum. Sturgeon isn't stupid. She knows she would most likely lose a second referendum right now. Will there be one in years down the line? Yes. But we knew that before we left the EU. Nothing has really changed.

Northern Ireland literally just elected a new parliament with the majority party being the one that publicly campaigned for Leave. The only ones clamouring for a referendum there are the minority party. It isn't the same situation and is very, very unlikely to happen. Again, misinformation spread by multiple news sites who just focus on the "Armageddon" theme of the result, not the facts.

kneepel said:
Years of economic uncertainty is not healthy, it's the reason why the Pound is continuing to drop against the Dollar and why there is somewhat of a "brain-drain" happening right now.

Read my paragraph on the economic uncertainty above.

kneepel said:
Still very bad for the millions who live as UK residents in other countries, or frequently travel back and forth. Whether or not if it's a negative consequence or not is left up to opinion I suppose.

I'll be honest. I wouldn't really give a fuck about the Brits living in retirement in their villa in sunny Spain if I was voting. It appeared I wasn't alone.

Either way, reform of freedom of movement was absolutely the #1 reason people voted leave, by an absolutely landslide. It is not a negative of Brexit, like you said it was, to the majority of the country. Everyone on both sides agree immigration needs to be reformed, the people on Remain side simply said that leaving the EU wasn't the way to do it. Over half the country didn't agree.

There is a possibility of there being a mutual agreement so there can be freedom of workers, so people who want to work in other EU states still can. We will see. It depends on our new government and the negotiations. We can come back to that in a few years.

Also there's currently 3 million EU nationals currently in the UK, with 2 million Brits working or living in the EU. Any negotations, in my opinion, are very unlikely to result in the departure of any of these EU nationals, and likewise for the Brits living in the EU. It would be very weird to impose restrospective laws. I don't think any of the beneficiaries of freedom of movement so far will be affected by Brexit, only in the future.

kneepel said:
63% of people aged 18-44 voted to leave, and interestingly enough, the higher of an education someone received, the more likely they were to vote remain.

Age =/= wisdom, after living in a retirement community all my life, I can safely say this. 

I wasn't being truly serious when I said "fuck all seniors!", though it is pretty interesting to see the ridiculous age gap between leave and remain voters.


I know the figures. It doesn't invalidate the vote of over half the electorate. First I suggested to you an age restriction on the referendum, how about an IQ test before you can vote? It's democracy. I wish the same entitled students I mentioned earlier would realise there's more people in the country than them.

I was suggesting a reason as to why the older population voted the way they were. I wasn't suggesting age = wisdom explicitly. The point was there's a multitude of reasons, and it's not fair to say they "fucked it up for the rest of us". I think that's ludicrous to say.

kneepel said:
Funny enough, there still is somewhat of a chance the UK could not leave. Holyrood could withhold consent to leave the EU, that doesn't mean they'll 'block' it, but they could sure make it a lot harder although this is very unlikely to happen.

The Referendum was not legally binding, so it's not required for Cameron to invoke Article 50 and begin the process, though he would probably be stoned to death if he did that.

First statement is a myth. Scotland's parliament do not have the constitutional power to stop anything at all in any way shape or form. Sturgeon went to the EU for talks and went back to Scotland with her tails between her legs. The EU have made it clear they're not going to make any special arrangements for Scotland.

I know it was not legally binding. It actually triggers me when I read people saying we might not leave the EU. Of course it isn't required for Cameron to invoke Article 50. Every single notable politician who has any ounce of power in government has said the result must be respected and article 50 invoked. There is an absolute consensus on that. The people who think otherwise are the self-righteous, entitled students who signed the petition to reverse the result of the referendum and are holding on to false hope. More people voted to leave the EU than anything else in the history of the United Kingdom, over 17 million people. The result is not going to be denied by any politician who doesn't want to go down in history as the PM that denied the will of the British people and ignored a democratic vote. It's happening. The sooner people accept that the better. (I accept you said he'd be stoned to death, so you should have realised that while it is a possibility, there's 0 chance of it happening so no point in mentioning it)

Also Cameron has already said he isn't going to invoke it. He's leaving it for the next PM to decide when to invoke it. Some candidates for the PM have said they'll delay it until next year (Theresa May), others have said they'd trigger it immediately (Andrea Leadsom). Either way, it's happening.

kneepel said:
after you respond though i'm going to stop, because political arguments go nowhere.

ayy lmao here's to being canadian.

It's not a confrontational argument. You're clearly very negative on the prospects of the UK after Brexit and I think you've bought into the exact type of misinformation during the campaign you're talking about so I'm showing you the other side of the coin. There's no hard feelings, you can respond if you want, or just take on board some of my points and not respond. I don't mind. My posts were for other people to read to if they're interested in it. The Leave side is so misrepresented in the media, even supposedly "unbiased" news sources such as the BBC have grossly misreported during the campaign.
 
magnify said:

It's not a confrontational argument. You're clearly very negative on the prospects of the UK after Brexit and I think you've bought into the exact type of misinformation during the campaign you're talking about so I'm showing you the other side of the coin. There's no hard feelings, you can respond if you want, or just take on board some of my points and not respond. I don't mind. My posts were for other people to read to if they're interested in it. The Leave side is so misrepresented in the media, even supposedly "unbiased" news sources such as the BBC have grossly misreported during the campaign.

What? No, no hard feelings at all, I'm not even upset. Sorry if it sounded like I was getting frustrated, I meant what I said; political arguments lead on forever, which really isn't a bad thing because hey, we're actually discussing something instead of shitposting.

Sorry if I sounded a bit confrontational in that last post, wrote it late last night and didn't really check over it lmbo.


magnify said:
It doesn't matter who Germany's largest trade partners are. They export a lot to us also. You don't just turn down a better trade deal for your country because you have other large trade deals. If it's in their national interest to not impose tariffs on some trade sectors then they simply won't want to do it. As I said, the UK is one of the EU's closest trading partners. It sounds stupid to even say it because it should be so blindingly obvious but... we aren't going to be in the same situation as Canada (which everyone loves to cite for some reason). Of course it will take a few years, but the EU has trade deals with non-EU countries that include tariff-free trade in some sectors of the manufacturing. The UK could have a very similar deal for sectors that are heavily mutually dependent on the EU (for example, car industry, like I said earlier).

Not going to sift through the rest, because I don't have enough time and this is what stood out, but how do you think the UK is going to leave? Britain could just invoke article 50 and pull a clean exit, which will end up with no trade agreements between the EU and the UK effectively imposing tariffs on whatever Britain exports to the EU (40% of their GDP) which would most likely end with a major recession. Britain could negotiate to remain in the EEA, which is very unlikely as it would show that a member state of the EU can basically circumvent their rules (immigration comes to mind) yet still remain as part of the trade union; EU leaders will not go for this. 

..or you know, Britain could annul the vote which would end in a catastrophic shitstorm.


speculationnnn
 
kneepel said:
magnify said:

It's not a confrontational argument. You're clearly very negative on the prospects of the UK after Brexit and I think you've bought into the exact type of misinformation during the campaign you're talking about so I'm showing you the other side of the coin. There's no hard feelings, you can respond if you want, or just take on board some of my points and not respond. I don't mind. My posts were for other people to read to if they're interested in it. The Leave side is so misrepresented in the media, even supposedly "unbiased" news sources such as the BBC have grossly misreported during the campaign.

What? No, no hard feelings at all, I'm not even upset. Sorry if it sounded like I was getting frustrated, I meant what I said; political arguments lead on forever, which really isn't a bad thing because hey, we're actually discussing something instead of shitposting.

Sorry if I sounded a bit confrontational in that last post, wrote it late last night and didn't really check over it lmbo.



magnify said:
It doesn't matter who Germany's largest trade partners are. They export a lot to us also. You don't just turn down a better trade deal for your country because you have other large trade deals. If it's in their national interest to not impose tariffs on some trade sectors then they simply won't want to do it. As I said, the UK is one of the EU's closest trading partners. It sounds stupid to even say it because it should be so blindingly obvious but... we aren't going to be in the same situation as Canada (which everyone loves to cite for some reason). Of course it will take a few years, but the EU has trade deals with non-EU countries that include tariff-free trade in some sectors of the manufacturing. The UK could have a very similar deal for sectors that are heavily mutually dependent on the EU (for example, car industry, like I said earlier).

Not going to sift through the rest, because I don't have enough time and this is what stood out, but how do you think the UK is going to leave? Britain could just invoke article 50 and pull a clean exit, which will end up with no trade agreements between the EU and the UK effectively imposing tariffs on whatever Britain exports to the EU (40% of their GDP) which would most likely end with a major recession. Britain could negotiate to remain in the EEA, which is very unlikely as it would show that a member state of the EU can basically circumvent their rules (immigration comes to mind) yet still remain as part of the trade union; EU leaders will not go for this. 

..or you know, Britain could annul the vote which would end in a catastrophic shitstorm.


speculationnnn

When Article 50 is invoked we have two years to negotiate with the individual member states the different agreements on immigration, trade, etc. before all ties are cut off with the EU. That's why some PM candidates want to begin informal talks with the EU to prolong that period. So we have a while (again, two years from the point article 50 is invoked) before we end up with no trade agreements whatsoever. That rule is there to prevent the situation you're describing, leaving a member state with no trade agreements, stuck in the mud.

If Theresa May is our next PM, which she most likely is, she won't invoke Article 50 until at least next year, so maybe 3+ years from now we would have hopefully negotiated basic trade deals with most of the individual member states, along with immigration, workers status, etc. and then the official break from the EU comes.
 
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