Celach
Well-known member
Didn't want to be one of those people discussing it 945638127 days before it was readily approaching, but since the Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow, here we go.
Donald Trump is the Roger Federer of the cycle so far; every month since he announced, people and pundits predicted he was done, and he has not only held but increased his lead in a lot of the national and statewide polling. He also has an extremely loyal and fervent fan base that will view him as #1 regardless of pretty much anything. In Iowa, FiveThirtyEight has Trump at just over 30%, with over a 5-point lead over the second place Ted Cruz. RealClearPolitics has Trump at the same mark, but Cruz a slightly more distant second, making it a 6-point lead for Trump. That's still pretty much a toss-up if you have your statistical or political hat on, but Trump has been trending up and Cruz has been trending down. It would be very surprising if those two didn't occupy the first and second place spots.
Nate Silver ran a great article in FiveThirtyEight about reasons to be less skeptical (keep your statistics hat on) about Trump's chances. Even if he loses Iowa, he has huge leads in polls in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida. The only state that votes before March 15 (Florida) where his polling performance isn't first place is Ted Cruz's home state of Texas.
A big question looming over Trump's performance is, because he is an unconventional candidate who's engaging unconventional voters, how many of them will really go out there and vote for him? If he loses Iowa, it isn't a huge loss for him in my opinion. His real danger is losing by a margin significant enough that people start questioning the accuracy of his measured support in the polls. Support ≠ intent to vote. If he gets 15-20% of the vote that's still an impressive performance in a very crowded field, but the story will be that his poll numbers are inflated. The New Hampshire primary is a week after Iowa Caucuses and many polls and studies have suggested that almost half of those primary voters make up their minds in the final week, so that negative Trump coverage could snowball into his gradual defeat. His "winner" persona would be shattered by losing the first two contests. I think he can get away with not winning Iowa; it itself isn't a good predictor of who gets the nomination, and it has a large evangelical Christian base that you'd assume would be problematic for Trump, but he's even the leading candidate among evangelicals. I think the spin for Iowa if he loses will be "It's amazing that I even did that well, I'm awesome right?" and "Hey look at that we won even in Iowa/Looks like my supporters did turn out to vote/I thought they said I had no chance?"
Anyone have any predictions or hopeful winners?
Donald Trump is the Roger Federer of the cycle so far; every month since he announced, people and pundits predicted he was done, and he has not only held but increased his lead in a lot of the national and statewide polling. He also has an extremely loyal and fervent fan base that will view him as #1 regardless of pretty much anything. In Iowa, FiveThirtyEight has Trump at just over 30%, with over a 5-point lead over the second place Ted Cruz. RealClearPolitics has Trump at the same mark, but Cruz a slightly more distant second, making it a 6-point lead for Trump. That's still pretty much a toss-up if you have your statistical or political hat on, but Trump has been trending up and Cruz has been trending down. It would be very surprising if those two didn't occupy the first and second place spots.
Nate Silver ran a great article in FiveThirtyEight about reasons to be less skeptical (keep your statistics hat on) about Trump's chances. Even if he loses Iowa, he has huge leads in polls in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida. The only state that votes before March 15 (Florida) where his polling performance isn't first place is Ted Cruz's home state of Texas.
A big question looming over Trump's performance is, because he is an unconventional candidate who's engaging unconventional voters, how many of them will really go out there and vote for him? If he loses Iowa, it isn't a huge loss for him in my opinion. His real danger is losing by a margin significant enough that people start questioning the accuracy of his measured support in the polls. Support ≠ intent to vote. If he gets 15-20% of the vote that's still an impressive performance in a very crowded field, but the story will be that his poll numbers are inflated. The New Hampshire primary is a week after Iowa Caucuses and many polls and studies have suggested that almost half of those primary voters make up their minds in the final week, so that negative Trump coverage could snowball into his gradual defeat. His "winner" persona would be shattered by losing the first two contests. I think he can get away with not winning Iowa; it itself isn't a good predictor of who gets the nomination, and it has a large evangelical Christian base that you'd assume would be problematic for Trump, but he's even the leading candidate among evangelicals. I think the spin for Iowa if he loses will be "It's amazing that I even did that well, I'm awesome right?" and "Hey look at that we won even in Iowa/Looks like my supporters did turn out to vote/I thought they said I had no chance?"
Anyone have any predictions or hopeful winners?
